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WHAT TO EXPECT AS A BUYER OR SELLER ON THE SAMMAMISH PLATEAU (Summer 2009)
I examined all the 55 Closed Sales in the Sammamish Plateau (MLS Area 540) for the month of July 2009. For the sake of this analysis I zeroed in on the $300-500k market segment and threw out one sale that was on the market for almost three years.
I thought the results were informative for both buyers and sellers in terms of setting expectations. First of all, the average discount off of the last list price was ONLY 3%. As you can see from the chart below- the trendline shows that the average house sold for 97% of the last list price.
Sellers and Realtors are getting better at pricing- not perfect- but getting more efficient.
The vertical axis shows the Closed Price percent of List Price (List price being 100). The horizontal axis measures days on market. The average days on market is 111 days or 3.7 months. The most a buyer paid was 103% of list and AMAZINGLY- only one property sold for more than 10% off the last list price (83% of last list), and only two houses out of 55 sold for more than 6% off of list price.
Many buyers tell me- “This listing has been on the market for 120 days- the seller will take a lowball offer.” This chart debunks that myth. The red trendline does not slant down over time as you would expect- it stays relatively flat throughout.
Now, this is not the % of the ORIGINAL list price- in which I would expect a downward slant- but what it does tell you is that the listing price that you CURRENTLY SEE is very close to what you will pay as a buyer if you are serious about ACTUALLY CLOSING A PURCHASE. Seller’s are not negotiating offers more than 6% off of the last list price 96% of the time!
At the risk of stating the obvious, the most telling signal of what a seller will take for their property is the CURRENT LIST PRICE. It’s not rocket science! In this market segment- the average list price was $427,000 and the average discount off the last list price was $13,000. When a seller holds a price out on the market they are willing to negotiate about another $10,000 to $15,000 off of the current list price and no more in this segment.
Perhaps the typical offer comes in $20,000 to $30,000 low and during the negotiations the two parties “meet halfway”- landing near the $13,000 mark. As a buyer- if you are coming in 10% low and are not willing to come up higher- it is very unlikely you will secure a house if you are a buyer. Seller’s have a floor- and it is somewhere around 5% below their list price. Don’t waste your time if you are not willing to come near the 97% mark.
I thought the results were informative for both buyers and sellers in terms of setting expectations. First of all, the average discount off of the last list price was ONLY 3%. As you can see from the chart below- the trendline shows that the average house sold for 97% of the last list price.
Sellers and Realtors are getting better at pricing- not perfect- but getting more efficient.
The vertical axis shows the Closed Price percent of List Price (List price being 100). The horizontal axis measures days on market. The average days on market is 111 days or 3.7 months. The most a buyer paid was 103% of list and AMAZINGLY- only one property sold for more than 10% off the last list price (83% of last list), and only two houses out of 55 sold for more than 6% off of list price.
Many buyers tell me- “This listing has been on the market for 120 days- the seller will take a lowball offer.” This chart debunks that myth. The red trendline does not slant down over time as you would expect- it stays relatively flat throughout.
Now, this is not the % of the ORIGINAL list price- in which I would expect a downward slant- but what it does tell you is that the listing price that you CURRENTLY SEE is very close to what you will pay as a buyer if you are serious about ACTUALLY CLOSING A PURCHASE. Seller’s are not negotiating offers more than 6% off of the last list price 96% of the time!
At the risk of stating the obvious, the most telling signal of what a seller will take for their property is the CURRENT LIST PRICE. It’s not rocket science! In this market segment- the average list price was $427,000 and the average discount off the last list price was $13,000. When a seller holds a price out on the market they are willing to negotiate about another $10,000 to $15,000 off of the current list price and no more in this segment.
Perhaps the typical offer comes in $20,000 to $30,000 low and during the negotiations the two parties “meet halfway”- landing near the $13,000 mark. As a buyer- if you are coming in 10% low and are not willing to come up higher- it is very unlikely you will secure a house if you are a buyer. Seller’s have a floor- and it is somewhere around 5% below their list price. Don’t waste your time if you are not willing to come near the 97% mark.
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